Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
